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WNBA Playoff Matchups will be decided today, even though the WNBA All Star Game Recap wasn’t that long ago. I mean maybe it was but time moves differently now, haha.
The WNBA regular season is down to the wire — and for fans, that means one thing: the final day is going to decide almost everything about the playoff bracket. The eight playoff teams are already set, but only three seeds are locked. The rest? Still shifting depending on the last slate of games.
What We Already Know
Minnesota Lynx are the #1 seed. No one’s catching them.
Phoenix Mercury are locked into the #4 seed.
New York Liberty hold steady at #5 seed.
That’s it. Every other spot is still up in the air, which makes the final day of the regular season feel like an early playoff preview.
What’s Still in Play
Battle for #2: Las Vegas vs Atlanta
The Las Vegas Aces can claim the #2 seed if they beat the Los Angeles Sparks. If they lose, though, the Atlanta Dream slide into that spot and Vegas drops to #3. That’s a big deal — because the difference between facing Seattle or Indiana in the first round is massive.
The Golden State Swing
The brand-new Golden State Valkyries control the other big shuffle. If they win, they could climb to #6. If they lose, they fall all the way to #8. That result ripples down to the Indiana Fever and Seattle Storm:
Golden State win → Indiana #7, Seattle #8
Golden State loss → Indiana #6, Seattle #7, Golden State #8
Possible First-Round Matchups
The playoff format is best-of-three in the first round, with Game 2 hosted by the lower seed. Here’s how things could shake out:
Scenario 1: Las Vegas Wins (Aces take #2)
(1) Minnesota Lynx vs (8) Seattle Storm
(2) Las Vegas Aces vs (7) Indiana Fever
(3) Atlanta Dream vs (6) Golden State Valkyries
(4) Phoenix Mercury vs (5) New York Liberty (this matchup is locked no matter what)
Scenario 2: Las Vegas Loses (Dream take #2)
Embed from Getty Images(1) Minnesota Lynx vs (8) Golden State Valkyries
(2) Atlanta Dream vs (7) Seattle Storm
(3) Las Vegas Aces vs (6) Indiana Fever
(4) Phoenix Mercury vs (5) New York Liberty
Why It Matters
Minnesota’s path: As the #1 seed, the Lynx could either draw a Seattle team loaded with veterans or a hungry Golden State expansion squad.
Vegas’s urgency: A win keeps the Aces out of a tougher #3 seed spot and avoids a matchup with Indiana.
Atlanta’s opportunity: The Dream could leapfrog Vegas into the #2 seed and get home-court advantage in the semis.
Phoenix vs New York: This is the only guaranteed matchup, and it’s already shaping up as the star-power series of the first round.
The Bottom Line
The WNBA’s regular season finale isn’t just about closing out the schedule — it’s setting the stage for what could be one of the most competitive postseasons in league history. With so much still undecided, the final day will feel like playoff basketball before the playoffs even start.
Grab your snacks, block off your calendar, and get ready. Because the bracket won’t be official until the very last buzzer.
